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GOLDUSD H4 Bollinger Band Price Action Outlook

GOLDUSD Technical Setup Before Michigan Sentiment GOLDUSD —quoted on trading platforms as XAU / USD and nicknamed the “yellow metal”—tracks the value of one troy ounce of gold against the U.S. dollar, making it a premier barometer for global risk sentiment and dollar liquidity. Today’s fundamental landscape is dominated by three USD-centric events: Minneapolis Fed […]

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1377; (P) 1.1462; (R1) 1.1507; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside. Pull back from 1.1572 short term topping could extend lower. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039. On the upside, break of 1.1572 will resume larger up trend. In the […]

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Commodities return: Why allocation matters

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Key points:

Being tangible assets, commodities offer investors both exposure to global growth and a hedge against inflation, currency depreciation, and broader fiscal instability.
Despite growing headwinds, major commodity indices have recently outperformed most other asset classes; however, with a varying degree depending on the allocation to five top-performing commodities.
Investors considering broad exposure to commodities should pay close attention to the strategic differences between indices—and, with that, their exposure to individual commodities and sectors.

The spotlight in the commodities market remains firmly on gold, which overnight surged to a new all-time high of USD 3,500—marking an impressive 33% year-to-date gain. This rapid ascent means the yellow metal has already reached our recently upgraded price forecast, far earlier than anticipated. Gold’s meteoric rise underscores a broader trend in the commodities space, which continues to be heavily influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical developments—particularly the intensifying trade war between the United States and China. As the world’s two largest economies clash, concerns mount over its potential drag on global growth and the resulting impact on demand for pro-cyclical commodities such as energy and industrial metals.

Adding to the market turbulence, the Easter weekend saw renewed political pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve. President Trump once again challenged the Fed's independence by publicly urging a rate cut, a move that rattled financial markets. Stocks slid further, and the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low. In characteristic fashion, Trump directly targeted Fed Chair Jerome Powell, labeling him a "major loser" and accusing him of reacting "too late" to economic threats. His stark warning—“His termination can’t come soon enough”—has escalated what was previously a policy disagreement into a personal and politically charged standoff. This shift not only intensifies the pressure on the Fed but also serves to position Powell as a convenient scapegoat for a looming economic slowdown in the U.S.

Despite these growing headwinds, commodities have generally outperformed most other asset classes so far this year. Their appeal as tangible assets offers investors both exposure to global growth and a hedge against inflation, currency depreciation, and broader fiscal instability. However, the rally has been uneven: only a few commodities—namely gold, copper, silver, and coffee—have delivered double-digit returns. This divergence highlights the importance of understanding how the performance of broadly diversified exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can vary significantly depending on their underlying composition and current market dynamics.

Commodity indices short- and medium-term returns

The table above compares three major commodity indices that are widely followed by institutional and retail investors alike: the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), S&P GSCI, and Deutsche Bank Optimum Yield Commodities Index (DBIQC). While the BCOM has outperformed over the past year, it lags behind the others on a five-year basis—primarily due to differences in sector allocation. BCOM, our preferred benchmark, tracks 24 major futures markets with a balanced distribution across energy, metals, and agriculture. By contrast, the S&P GSCI and DBIQC tracks a fewer number while maintaining a heavier weighting in energy markets.

While BCOM has delivered a better return in the past year, it trails the other two on a five-year basis, the main reason being the individual allocations between the three funds. While the BCOM, as mentioned, tracks 24 major futures markets, spread almost equally between energy, metals, and agriculture, the other two have the bulk of their exposure across the energy sector. In the last year, the BCOM has benefited from exceptional gains in gold (46%), silver (18%), copper (7.4%), coffee (76%), and live cattle (21%). These five commodities represent 30.8% of BCOM’s total weighting—considerably higher than their 16.3% and 13.7% share in the S&P GSCI and DBIQC, respectively.

Commodity weightings across three major indices

In summary, investors considering broad exposure to commodities should pay close attention to the strategic differences between indices. During periods of strong economic growth—particularly in resource-intensive emerging markets—energy and industrial metals tend to outperform. However, in times of financial uncertainty, such as the current environment marked by inflation concerns and political tensions, indices with a heavier weighting in precious metals and agriculture may offer better protection and diversification, the latter being somewhat uncorrelated but still supported during periods of dollar weakness.

One year return

Five-year returns

Recent commodity articles:

16 April 2025: Whats next as gold hits our USD 3300 target 15 April 2025: COT Reports show hedge funds racing to cash post-Liberation Day 11 April 2025: Commodities weekly As chaos reigns whats next for markets 10 April 2025: YouTube Interview: Gold, silver, copper, oil - prices, supply, demand in 2025 8 April 2025: Golds deleveraging pullback fails to shake supportive outlook 8 April 2025: Golds deleveraging pullback fails to shake supportive outlook 7 April 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - April 7 2025 4 April 2025: Commodities weekly Tariff-led recession pain triggers sharp reversal 3 April 2025: Tariff-related recession fears ignite widespread commodities selloff 2 April 2025: Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty 31 Mch 2025: COT Report: Ongoing USD selling amid mixed week for commodities 26 Mch 2025: Commodities show strength in Q1, led by a select few 25 Mch 2025: Crude oil Sanctions threat counters tariff-driven demand worries 24 Mch 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - 24 March 2025 21 Mch 2025: Commodities weekly: High-flying precious metal sees profit taking 19 Mch 2025: Has the gold express already left the station? 17 Mch 2025: COT Report: Silver and copper stands out in week of energy weakness 14 Mch 2025: Gold surges past USD 3,000 as haven demand grows 12 Mch 2025: Tariffs and the energy transition: Key drivers of copper demand 11 Mch 2025: Gold holds steady despite deleveraging risks in volatile markets 10 Mch 2025: COT Report: Wholesale reductions in speculators' USD and commodity longs 7 Mch 2025: Commodities Weekly: Tariffs, trade tensions, fiscal bazooka, and Ukraine 5 Mch 2025: Tariff threat disconnects HG copper from global market 4 Mch 2025: Stagflation and geopolitical tensions fuel renewed demand for gold 3 Mch 2025: COT Report: Broad retreat sees WTI longs slump to 15-year low Podcasts that include commodities focus: 11 April 2025: US and China are slipping into an economic war 4 April 2025: Markets melts down as recession risks go global 1 April 2025: Bracing for Liberation Day 25 Mch 2025: Did Trump just blink? 18 Mch 2025: US market found support, but how durable will it be? 14 Mch 2025: Is silver set to shoot the lights out? 10 Mch 2025: US un-exceptionalism is the theme 7 Mch 2025: US bear market risks ratchet higher. EUR train has left the station 4 March 2025: Are we on the verge of a big whoosh?

Ole HansenHead of Commodity StrategySaxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Inflation Federal Reserve ETF Gold Silver Trump Version 2 - Traders Copper Coffee Crude Oil

Top 3 trade ideas for 21 April 2025

The overview is based on trade ideas provided by the Acuity Trading service. RoboForex analysts only select ideas from those available on the platform and do not develop them independently. Please note that trading in financial markets involves high risks, and the ideas presented are not investment recommendations.

Trade ideas for EURUSD, XAUUSD, and GBPUSD are available today, with an expiration date of 22 April 2025.

Today’s trade ideas

Table of contents

EURUSD trade idea
XAUUSD trade idea
GBPUSD trade idea

EURUSD trade idea

The EURUSD currency pair continues to rise within a strong bullish impulse, showing sustained buyer interest. Bullish support intensified during the Asian session, pushing the price above the previous key resistance at 1.1474. Near the 1.1610 mark, a confluence zone of Fibonacci levels could act as a significant technical barrier and may trigger a corrective pullback. Today’s trade idea for EURUSD suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order.

News sentiment indicates a dominance of positive expectations for EURUSD – 57% vs 43%. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3. Potential profit at the first take-profit target is 135 points, and 194 points at the second, while possible losses are limited to 50 points.

EURUSD trade idea for 21 April 2025

Trading plan

Entry Point: 1.1475
Target 1: 1.1610
Target 2: 1.1669
Stop-Loss: 1.1425

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XAUUSD trade idea

XAUUSD maintains a steady upward trend under the influence of strong bullish momentum. However, the current rally shows signs of overbought conditions, and the forming bearish divergence could limit further growth potential and trigger a correction. Despite this, the medium-term outlook remains bullish, with the preferred strategy being to buy on pullbacks near key support levels. Today’s XAUUSD trade idea suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order.

News sentiment for XAUUSD shows a moderate dominance of negative expectations – 54% vs 46%. The risk-to-reward ratio is greater than 1:3. Potential profit at the first take-profit target is 9,000 points, and 10,000 points at the second, with possible losses capped at 3,000 points.

XAUUSD trade idea for 21 April 2025

Trading plan

Entry Point: 3300.00
Target 1: 3390.00
Target 2: 3400.00
Stop-Loss: 3270.00

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GBPUSD trade idea

The strong bullish trend in GBPUSD continues, with the pair rising for the ninth consecutive session. Although overbought conditions have emerged, there are no signs yet of the bullish impulse fading. Buyer support remains firm. A key support level for a potential rebound stands at 1.3269. Under current conditions, the preferred strategy is to buy on dips in anticipation of further strengthening. Today’s GBPUSD trade idea suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order.

News sentiment for GBPUSD reflects a moderate dominance of positive expectations – 56% vs 44%. The risk-to-reward ratio is greater than 1:3. Potential profit at the first take-profit target is 180 points, and 231 points at the second, while possible losses are limited to 70 points.

GBPUSD trade idea for 21 April 2025

Trading plan

Entry Point: 1.3269
Target 1: 1.3449
Target 2: 1.3500
Stop-Loss: 1.3199

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AUD/USD edges higher above 0.6350 ahead of PBoC rate decision

The AUD/USD pair trades in positive territory around 0.6380 during the Asian session on Monday, bolstered by the weaker US Dollar (USD). Traders await the developments surrounding the United States and China trade discussions, while tensions between the two largest economies are intensifying.

Japan’s National CPI climbs 3.6% YoY in March, Core CPI rises as expected

Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% YoY in March, compared to the previous reading of 3.7%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.

Forex Today: Gold Reaches New Record High Above $3,291 - 16 April 2025

Gold Continues Its Long-Term Bullish Trend, Eyeing $3,300; Stock Markets Lower as Trump Restricts NVIDIA Chip Exports to China; US Dollar Index May Be Breaking Below Key Support; Canadian Inflation Lower Than Expected, Suggest BoC to Pass on Rate Cut Today

Market Insights with Gary Thomson: UK & Canada Inflation, BOC & ECB Rates, Corporate Earnings

In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retreats further from all-time highs of $3,245

Gold price is back in the red early Monday, snapping a three-day record rally to lifetime highs of $3,245 set on Friday.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.01; (P) 145.44; (R1) 146.86; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 158.86 should target 139.57 support next. On the upside, break of 148.26 is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery. In the bigger picture, […]

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