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The FX Trader: BoJ leads seven incoming central bank meetings

Political considerations in the mix for the BoJ.

The latest

Muted volatility is the uninspiring watchword of the day across much of FX as the US dollar remains a barometer of cross-market risk sentiment. The US dollar peaked at the Friday close and around the Monday opening before generally weakening until early today as risk sentiment stabilized, even without notably positive news coming from the war front in Iran or sense the flows of oil and gas are set to normalize in any way through the Hormuz Strait.

The USD began firming from an early Wednesday low as crude oil prices are misbehaving badly once again later in the day, with the Brent crude oil benchmark rising sharply to new highs and above the highest daily close of the cycle (surprisingly 103.42 versus 108+ as of this writing) as Israel is bombing Iran’s energy infrastructure and Iran counters with threats to attack regional energy production infrastructure “previously thought safe”.

The USD is dually a safe haven from higher oil prices, enjoying both 1) the usual liquidity angle and the fact that the market was profoundly negative on the US dollar coming into this crisis (which hasn’t been priced as a crisis just yet, but more like a “cause of concern” and 2) because the US enjoys better supplied energy markets and vastly lower prices as it is closer to self-sufficiency in oil if regional imports are included in the mix, and total self sufficiency in gas.

Another currency enjoying a tailwind from the recent rise in oil and gas prices and with a turbo-charged rally yesterday is the Norwegian krone. EURNOK dove below 11.02 today, already yesterday clearing all the key range lows since early 2023 and brining the psychologically important 11.00 into view. Plenty more potential for an even lower EURNOK as long as energy deliveries to Europe are in doubt. A currency not providing any safe haven cachet

Central bank cavalcade today and tomorrow. The BoJ is the most interesting for potential signals. For most currencies, the coming central bank meetings are far less important than the additional volatility risks from any dramatic news from the war in Iran – or even just the market deciding that it is being too complacent – something we have argued in recent days. But a quick rundown of each of the central banks meeting today and tomorrow.

Bank of Canada 1345 GMT Wednesday Bottom line: not looking for surprises. The BoC was out just before we go live with this report. No surprise to see a muted reaction as the BoC prefers to “look through” the uncertainty from higher oil prices and the impact on inflation for now, concentrating on risks to lower growth. The market has priced a possible BoC hike for later this year, but the Canadian economic data is surprising very negatively lately and inflation was heading lower. The economy will weigh greaterfor the BoC, but the rate is already low.

FOMC Meeting - 1800 GMT Wednesday Bottom line: market not pricing surprises and unlikely to get firm takeaways from a lame duck Fed Chair and diverse FOMC views in the forecasts. The outlook is clouded by the recent mixed US data,some of which has been positive, and the jump in energy prices with is growth negative/inflation positive, an ugly mix for the dual-mandate Fed. , the market has quickly reduced the number of expected Fed rate cuts for the balance of this year from more than two to slightly less than one since the war in Iran began. We’re al waiting for the new Warsh-led Fed and how it will enable Bessent’s agenda more than this or the next FOMC meeting.

  • Bank of Japan – Thursday somewhere before or after 0300 GMT Bottom line: The market needs some guidance and Ueda needs to be careful about his dovish tendencies with USDJPY up against a level (160.00) that Japan’s finance minister doesn’t like after repeated verbal intervention ahead of that level this week. Also, Takaichi is set to meet with Trump tomorrow – new cycle highs wouldn’t be a good look, PR-wise. But what if oil prices are spiking well north of 110/barrel before then? Japan is one of the most reliant large economies to crude oil from the Hormuz Strait. Generally looking for the BoJ avoid pressure on JPY above all else which has to mean guiding for another rate hike soon to firm market expectations that they remain on track for policy tightening. But they have disappointed so often in recent history….
  • Swiss National Bank (SNB) – Thursday 0830 GMT Bottom line: SNB won’t need to deliver a super-strong message with EURCHF well above 0.9000 and with gold prices cratering as its safe haven bid hasn’t been there this week after the Monday spike lower. But expect the bank to deliver the message that its preferred tool is FX intervention in the event CHF does begin strengthening again.
  • Sweden Riksbank – Thursday 0830 GMT Bottom line: Riksbank has no choice to but wax a bit hawkish needing to do so to consider currency risks from weaker FX if an oil crisis lies ahead – might wax a bit more hawkish to counter risks from poor liquidity as its policy rate looks very low relative to global peers at 1.75%.
  • Bank of England – Thursday 1200 GMT Bottom line: The market has fairly removed all the former forward cut anticipation, helping to revive sterling. The Bank of England might look to buy time by wishy washy language fretting risks to inflation and growth but hoping it won’t have to guide for now, hoping clarity emerges before the next meeting. If we get proper risk off from war in Iran, sterling might come under pressure. No rate move is priced in for next several meetings.
  • ECB – Thursday 1315 GMT Bottom line: The ECB likely to reflexively talk up inflation risks – but will still want to buy time. The market is penciling in an ECB rate hike with low odds for the late April meeting, higher odds for the June meeting. More hawkish ECB is in the price, so firmer guidance would be needed to add to hike anticipation.

Chart focus: USDJPY The natural direction of pressure for USDJPY is to the upside as the USD is the dual safe haven on its invulnerability to oil supply disruptions and normal safe haven status, while Japan is over a barrel as long as crude oil prices streak higher, as it is one of the most dependent economies on oil supplies through the Hormuz Strait – and the Bank of Japan tends to underplay inflation risks relative to global peers. Meanwhile, one can’t make up the fact that Japan’s Ministry of Finance continues to intervene just ahead of 160.00 and PM Takaichi is to meet US President Trump on Thursday. Choppy, choppy price action expected if 160.00 is tested on market getting spooked by flows and intervention rumors.

Source: Saxo

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength. Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

The AUD has lost some steam today on risk off after AUD probed higher today again – the AU jobs report is up in Australia’s Thursday session. Elsewhere, the big shit has been in NOK strength and USD weakness since early this week faded a bit today.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

USDCAD is threatening to flip to an uptrend on the close today, but really needs a move and close above 1.3750 for confirmation that something is afoot. Elsewhere, the recent new EURJPY “downtrend” is nothing of the sort as that pair is rangebound for now, while Gold is interestingly teetering on a flip to the downside if it closes near current levels today – stay tuned.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..
John J. HardyGlobal Head of Macro StrategySaxo Bank
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JP 225 forecast: the index has moved into a sideways trend

Despite a significant decline, the JP 225 stock index has not entered a downtrend. The JP 225 forecast for today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: Japan’s GDP rose 0.3% in Q4 2025
  • Market impact: the effect is favourable for the Japanese stock market

JP 225 fundamental analysis

According to the published data, this news is moderately positive for the JP 225 index overall. Japan’s GDP growth of 0.3%, up from a weaker previous quarter, indicates that the country’s economy is showing greater resilience than previously expected. This is important for the stock market because such dynamics reduce the likelihood of a deterioration in corporate earnings expectations and generally support interest in Japanese stocks.

For the JP 225 index, this creates a supportive backdrop, but it does not guarantee a strong and sustained rally. At the same time, positive macroeconomic data strengthens expectations that the Bank of Japan may keep moving towards further normalisation of monetary policy.

Japan’s GDP growth rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth

JP 225 technical analysis

The JP 225 index has completed its correction and moved into a sideways range. The key support zone is at 53,580.0, while the nearest resistance level has formed around 60,125.00. At this stage, it is difficult to estimate how long the current sideways trend will last. The next downside target could be 52,630.0.

The JP 225 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout below the 53,580.0 support level could send the index down to 50,210.0
  • Optimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout above the 60,125.0 resistance level could boost the index to 61,825.0
JP 225 technical analysis for 12 March 2026

Summary

Japan’s economy remains resilient, which means the Japanese stock market still has fundamental support. For the JP 225, this is generally a positive factor, but its impact will likely be limited due to potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan and the risk of a stronger yen. The published data appears most favourable for banks, insurance companies, domestic demand plays, and part of the industrial sector. The next downside target for the JP 225 could be 52,630.0.

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Private credit fears grow as Morgan Stanley limits redemptions and JPMorgan cuts leverage

Summary:

  • Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals from its North Haven Private Income Fund after redemption requests reached nearly 11% of shares outstanding.

  • The fund returned about $169 million, or 45.8% of tender requests, due to quarterly redemption caps.

  • Investor scrutiny is increasing across the $2 trillion private credit market.

  • JPMorgan has marked down loans used as collateral by private credit firms, reducing their borrowing capacity.

  • The adjustments largely affect software company loans, where AI disruption fears are rising.

  • Higher redemptions have also appeared at funds run by BlackRock, Blackstone and Blue Owl.

  • Banks appear to be taking precautionary steps to reduce leverage exposure in the sector.

Fresh signs of strain are emerging in the fast-growing private credit market as redemption pressures mount at major funds and banks move to reduce risk exposure to the sector.

Morgan Stanley has limited investor withdrawals from one of its private credit funds after redemption requests surged. In a regulatory filing, the bank said investors sought to redeem nearly 11% of shares in the North Haven Private Income Fund (PIF), significantly exceeding the fund’s quarterly withdrawal cap.

The fund returned roughly $169 million, or about 45.8% of the requested redemptions, according to a letter sent to investors. As outlined in its offering documents, the fund limits withdrawals to around 5% of outstanding units per quarter to prevent forced asset sales during periods of market stress.

Morgan Stanley said restricting withdrawals helps avoid liquidating assets at depressed valuations and protects long-term investor returns. The bank noted that credit fundamentals within the fund remain broadly stable, with the portfolio spanning 312 borrowers across 44 industries as of late January.

Nevertheless, the episode underscores rising scrutiny of the roughly $2 trillion private credit market, which has expanded rapidly in recent years as banks retreated from direct lending after the global financial crisis.

Investor concerns have intensified following several recent credit issues and questions about the durability of loan portfolios in a higher interest rate environment. Analysts say uncertainty over the pace of mergers and acquisitions, speculation about credit deterioration and falling asset yields are weighing on sentiment.

In earlier news, JPMorgan Chase is reportedly reducing its exposure to the sector by marking down the value of loans held as collateral by private credit firms that borrow from the bank.

The markdowns primarily affect loans to software companies, where rapid advances in artificial intelligence have raised concerns that some business models could face disruption, potentially weakening borrowers’ ability to repay debt.

By lowering the valuation of these loans, JPMorgan is effectively reducing how much private credit firms can borrow against them in financing arrangements known as “back-leverage.” In some cases, firms may need to post additional collateral.

The move appears to be a precautionary step rather than a response to widespread loan losses. However, it signals that large banks are increasingly wary of risks building in a market that layers leverage on top of leveraged corporate loans.

Redemption pressure has also surfaced elsewhere in the sector. BlackRock recently restricted withdrawals from a flagship debt fund, while Blackstone reported elevated redemption requests at its BCRED private credit vehicle.

Together, the developments suggest investors are reassessing exposure to private credit as borrowing costs remain elevated and technological disruption reshapes parts of the corporate landscape.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japana January current account surplus 941.6B vs 960B expected

  • Prior was 728.8B yen
  • Current account in goods vs 134.9B prior

Japan's current account balance, published monthly by the Ministry of Finance, is one of the broadest measures of the country's international transactions. It captures the trade balance in goods and services, primary income (mainly investment returns from overseas assets), and secondary income (transfers). As the world's largest net creditor nation, Japan's current account has been structurally supported by enormous overseas investment holdings accumulated over decades.

For full-year 2025, Japan posted a record current account surplus of ¥31.88 trillion, up 11.1% from the prior year and the highest since comparable data began in 1985. The result extended a two-year streak of record surpluses. The primary income balance — driven by dividends and interest from Japanese firms' offshore subsidiaries — rose 4.7% to an all-time high of ¥41.59 trillion, remaining the single largest contributor to the surplus. Meanwhile, the goods trade deficit shrank sharply by 76.8% to just ¥848.7 billion, as exports grew 2.5% on strong demand for semiconductors and foodstuffs while imports edged down 0.1%. However, the services deficit widened to ¥3.39 trillion from ¥2.77 trillion, reflecting rising expenses for overseas automobile and pharmaceutical R&D.

December itself was softer. The monthly surplus narrowed 32.0% year-over-year to ¥728.8 billion, well below market expectations. The primary income surplus slipped, the services account swung back into deficit, and the secondary income gap widened modestly. Still, the goods balance improved as export growth outpaced imports.

The data underscores Japan's evolving external profile — less reliant on goods trade surpluses and increasingly dependent on returns from its vast stock of foreign assets.

Separately, data on bank lending for Feb:

  • Lending +4.5% vs +4.5% prior
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.