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JP 225 forecast: the index has moved into a sideways trend

Despite a significant decline, the JP 225 stock index has not entered a downtrend. The JP 225 forecast for today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: Japan’s GDP rose 0.3% in Q4 2025
  • Market impact: the effect is favourable for the Japanese stock market

JP 225 fundamental analysis

According to the published data, this news is moderately positive for the JP 225 index overall. Japan’s GDP growth of 0.3%, up from a weaker previous quarter, indicates that the country’s economy is showing greater resilience than previously expected. This is important for the stock market because such dynamics reduce the likelihood of a deterioration in corporate earnings expectations and generally support interest in Japanese stocks.

For the JP 225 index, this creates a supportive backdrop, but it does not guarantee a strong and sustained rally. At the same time, positive macroeconomic data strengthens expectations that the Bank of Japan may keep moving towards further normalisation of monetary policy.

Japan’s GDP growth rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth

JP 225 technical analysis

The JP 225 index has completed its correction and moved into a sideways range. The key support zone is at 53,580.0, while the nearest resistance level has formed around 60,125.00. At this stage, it is difficult to estimate how long the current sideways trend will last. The next downside target could be 52,630.0.

The JP 225 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout below the 53,580.0 support level could send the index down to 50,210.0
  • Optimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout above the 60,125.0 resistance level could boost the index to 61,825.0
JP 225 technical analysis for 12 March 2026

Summary

Japan’s economy remains resilient, which means the Japanese stock market still has fundamental support. For the JP 225, this is generally a positive factor, but its impact will likely be limited due to potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan and the risk of a stronger yen. The published data appears most favourable for banks, insurance companies, domestic demand plays, and part of the industrial sector. The next downside target for the JP 225 could be 52,630.0.

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Private credit fears grow as Morgan Stanley limits redemptions and JPMorgan cuts leverage

Summary:

  • Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals from its North Haven Private Income Fund after redemption requests reached nearly 11% of shares outstanding.

  • The fund returned about $169 million, or 45.8% of tender requests, due to quarterly redemption caps.

  • Investor scrutiny is increasing across the $2 trillion private credit market.

  • JPMorgan has marked down loans used as collateral by private credit firms, reducing their borrowing capacity.

  • The adjustments largely affect software company loans, where AI disruption fears are rising.

  • Higher redemptions have also appeared at funds run by BlackRock, Blackstone and Blue Owl.

  • Banks appear to be taking precautionary steps to reduce leverage exposure in the sector.

Fresh signs of strain are emerging in the fast-growing private credit market as redemption pressures mount at major funds and banks move to reduce risk exposure to the sector.

Morgan Stanley has limited investor withdrawals from one of its private credit funds after redemption requests surged. In a regulatory filing, the bank said investors sought to redeem nearly 11% of shares in the North Haven Private Income Fund (PIF), significantly exceeding the fund’s quarterly withdrawal cap.

The fund returned roughly $169 million, or about 45.8% of the requested redemptions, according to a letter sent to investors. As outlined in its offering documents, the fund limits withdrawals to around 5% of outstanding units per quarter to prevent forced asset sales during periods of market stress.

Morgan Stanley said restricting withdrawals helps avoid liquidating assets at depressed valuations and protects long-term investor returns. The bank noted that credit fundamentals within the fund remain broadly stable, with the portfolio spanning 312 borrowers across 44 industries as of late January.

Nevertheless, the episode underscores rising scrutiny of the roughly $2 trillion private credit market, which has expanded rapidly in recent years as banks retreated from direct lending after the global financial crisis.

Investor concerns have intensified following several recent credit issues and questions about the durability of loan portfolios in a higher interest rate environment. Analysts say uncertainty over the pace of mergers and acquisitions, speculation about credit deterioration and falling asset yields are weighing on sentiment.

In earlier news, JPMorgan Chase is reportedly reducing its exposure to the sector by marking down the value of loans held as collateral by private credit firms that borrow from the bank.

The markdowns primarily affect loans to software companies, where rapid advances in artificial intelligence have raised concerns that some business models could face disruption, potentially weakening borrowers’ ability to repay debt.

By lowering the valuation of these loans, JPMorgan is effectively reducing how much private credit firms can borrow against them in financing arrangements known as “back-leverage.” In some cases, firms may need to post additional collateral.

The move appears to be a precautionary step rather than a response to widespread loan losses. However, it signals that large banks are increasingly wary of risks building in a market that layers leverage on top of leveraged corporate loans.

Redemption pressure has also surfaced elsewhere in the sector. BlackRock recently restricted withdrawals from a flagship debt fund, while Blackstone reported elevated redemption requests at its BCRED private credit vehicle.

Together, the developments suggest investors are reassessing exposure to private credit as borrowing costs remain elevated and technological disruption reshapes parts of the corporate landscape.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japana January current account surplus 941.6B vs 960B expected

  • Prior was 728.8B yen
  • Current account in goods vs 134.9B prior

Japan's current account balance, published monthly by the Ministry of Finance, is one of the broadest measures of the country's international transactions. It captures the trade balance in goods and services, primary income (mainly investment returns from overseas assets), and secondary income (transfers). As the world's largest net creditor nation, Japan's current account has been structurally supported by enormous overseas investment holdings accumulated over decades.

For full-year 2025, Japan posted a record current account surplus of ¥31.88 trillion, up 11.1% from the prior year and the highest since comparable data began in 1985. The result extended a two-year streak of record surpluses. The primary income balance — driven by dividends and interest from Japanese firms' offshore subsidiaries — rose 4.7% to an all-time high of ¥41.59 trillion, remaining the single largest contributor to the surplus. Meanwhile, the goods trade deficit shrank sharply by 76.8% to just ¥848.7 billion, as exports grew 2.5% on strong demand for semiconductors and foodstuffs while imports edged down 0.1%. However, the services deficit widened to ¥3.39 trillion from ¥2.77 trillion, reflecting rising expenses for overseas automobile and pharmaceutical R&D.

December itself was softer. The monthly surplus narrowed 32.0% year-over-year to ¥728.8 billion, well below market expectations. The primary income surplus slipped, the services account swung back into deficit, and the secondary income gap widened modestly. Still, the goods balance improved as export growth outpaced imports.

The data underscores Japan's evolving external profile — less reliant on goods trade surpluses and increasingly dependent on returns from its vast stock of foreign assets.

Separately, data on bank lending for Feb:

  • Lending +4.5% vs +4.5% prior
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.