Precious metals: platinum and silver steal the spotlight
The standout story of the month has been in precious metals. Gold continues to break records, recently reaching a fresh all-time high near USD 3,800. However, it has been silver and platinum that have delivered the most eye-catching returns.
Platinum surged 15% month-to-date to a 12-year high, lifting its year-to-date gain to an extraordinary 75%. The rally has been fuelled by mounting supply concerns in South Africa, where persistent power shortages threaten mining output, alongside a more constructive outlook for autocatalyst demand. Investors, recognizing platinum’s relative value compared to gold, have also piled in.
Silver rallied 11% in September, climbing above USD 45 for the first time in 14 years. A tightening supply outlook, driven by both industrial demand for solar panels and persistent deficits, has underpinned the move. The metal’s high-beta nature has amplified inflows from investors seeking leverage to gold’s record-breaking run.
Gold, while relatively overshadowed by its peers this month, has nonetheless risen 7.9% (41.4% YTD). ETF inflows as mentioned remain very strong with a 400 tons inflow this year lifting total holdings to a three-year high. Asian demand has been robust, and the decline in real yields has bolstered its role as a defensive asset. With concerns about U.S. fiscal stability and central bank independence a key focus, gold remains the anchor in the sector.
Together, the three metals have reinforced the narrative that precious metals are the clearest beneficiaries of the current macro environment: easier monetary policy, heightened geopolitical risks, and persistent demand for stores of value.
Industrial metals: copper rallies on supply shocks
Industrial metals also contributed significantly to the broader commodity rally. Copper prices jumped sharply after major supply disruptions hit two of the world’s largest mines: Grasberg in Indonesia and El Teniente in Chile. Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure at Grasberg following a deadly mudslide, while Codelco warned of prolonged delays at El Teniente after a tunnel collapse earlier this year.
These disruptions, which together and albeit briefly affect more than 5% of global copper supply, hit the market at a time of resilient demand. Although China’s property sector remains weak, global demand for copper tied to electrification themes—EV charging, power grid upgrades, and datacenter expansion—has more than offset the drag.
LME copper futures broke key resistance, now support, at USD 10,160 per ton, triggering short covering and opening the door to further gains. Investor positioning has also recovered, with hedge funds rebuilding length after the tariff-driven pump-and-dump episode earlier in the summer.
For now, the initial rally has partly been driven by momentum and technical-focused traders, and in order for those longs to be maintained these gains need to hold, leading to a great deal of focus on the price behaviour in the coming days, and whether the mentioned resistance-now-support level will hold.
Aluminum also eked out modest gains, supported by stronger demand for lightweight metals in transportation and energy-intensive industries. Overall, the industrial metals sector advanced 2% month-to-date, a move that belies the strength within copper specifically.
Energy: crude capped, but distillates lead
The energy complex has delivered steady returns, though the headline crude benchmarks remain stuck in familiar ranges. Brent and WTI both trade near the upper end of their recent bands, supported by geopolitical-led supply disruption concerns but capped by rising production from eight OPEC+ members. In addition, the agreement to resume oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region, halted for more than two years, could add around 230,000 barrels a day to the international market via the pipeline to Ceyhan in Turkey.
The real action continues to be in refined products, particularly diesel/gasoil. The ICE gasoil contract rose 8.3% this month, while NY ULSD gained 7.1%. The strength has been driven by reduced Russian exports after infrastructure strikes by Ukrainian forces, tighter sanctions compliance, and relatively lean European inventories heading into winter. Refinery maintenance has further tightened balances, widening cracks and pulling the complex higher.
Gasoline posted a smaller gain of 3.1%, reflecting softer seasonal demand, but still contributed to the overall strength of the energy sector. Natural gas, by contrast, fell 4% as robust U.S. storage levels and milder weather forecasts reduced near-term risk premia.
In summary, while crude remains rangebound, with Brent crude challenging the upper end near USD 70 per barrel of its two‑month range, the distillate‑led rally has underscored the importance of refined products as the key driver of energy performance this month. An added boost came from wrong‑footed speculators who recently held a record short position in WTI on the assumption that a softer macro backdrop and rising OPEC+ production would keep prices under pressure.
Agriculture: soybeans struggle, softs unwind
Agriculture has been the laggard in the commodity space this past month. For the year, a challenging backdrop for an amply supplied grains sector, down 6.8% year-to-date, has been partly offset by very strong gains in Arabica coffee and live cattle. In September, however, profit‑taking in coffee, together with continued weakness in sugar and cotton and fresh losses across grains, drove the agriculture sector to a 2.3% monthly decline, partly offsetting the strong gains in metals and energy.
Soybeans futures traded in Chicago remain pressured by a lack of Chinese buying from the U.S. and abundant supply from Brazil. China has held back on purchases in recent months, reducing overall demand for U.S. origin supplies. Soybeans remain the single largest American export to China, worth USD 12.6 billion last year and accounting for more than half of all U.S. farm exports of the crop. The absence of Chinese buying has left U.S. farmers with growing stockpiles that are losing value. However, any renewed activity from China could provide a boost to futures prices, but so far it has remained absent.
Cocoa dropped 9.9% after an extraordinary rally earlier this year. Improved West African weather, stabilizing logistics, and signs of demand rationing triggered a sharp correction. While structural deficits remain, speculative long liquidation has dominated recent flows.
Arabica coffee is heading for a small monthly drop, following a volatile period that saw prices surge by 50% following the 1 August introduction of U.S. tariffs on imports from Brazil. A move that reduced visible stockpiles in the U.S. and forced roasters to source supplies elsewhere, tightening the global market. In recent weeks, however, prices—though still highly volatile—have trended lower as improved harvest prospects in Brazil supported a more balanced global supply. A softer Brazilian real encouraged producer selling, while rising ICE certified stocks eased concerns about shortages.
